AI's economic growth expectations are debated. Historically, major tech revolutions saw slow adoption; AI may accelerate this due to its potential to automate invention. Some argue AI could enable rapid research and economic transformation, predicting dramatic growth rates of 20% or more if AI achieves superintelligence. However, many economists are skeptical, expecting AI's effect to be more modest, predicting a 3%-9% increase in economic growth per year. Factors include compute limitations and the automation of research processes. Future productivity gains may hinge on successful AI integration across various fields. Economic models show varying outcomes based on AI’s capabilities and deployment challenges.
https://inferencemagazine.substack.com/p/how-much-economic-growth-from-ai